Accuracy of wind energy forecasts in Great Britain and prospects for improvement

The metric representing the wind energy forecast error, when reported as a percent, is calculated quite differently than the error metrics for electricity transmission, electricity load, or in other industries such as manufacturing when they are also reported as a percent. The resulting calculated metric is quite different from what would be reported if the method utilized elsewhere was employed. This paper examines the possible forecast assessment and operational challenges associated with this finding. Concerning the prospects for improvement, the errors reported in MW of energy have a systematic component. With this insight, we developed a model to improve accuracy.     

2010-2020年深圳市机动车发展和油气需求量预测

介绍了深圳市机动车发展现状,分别用趋势外推法、城市比较分析法和分类法预测了2010-2020年深圳市的机动车保有量,最后预测了机动车的油气需求量。     

洪水水文预报系统

水文预报系统是计算机算法应用于水文预报的一次实践 ,在从产汇流原理出发 ,详细阐述系统结构 ,工作原理及系统特征 ,还对软件的应用及今后开发前景进行了展望 ,随着社会发展和科技进步 ,实施计算机预报系统便于提高预报精度 ,增强水文预报的时效性 ,将使水文预报作用日益显著。     

嘉陵江上游区滑坡泥石流预警信息系统初步研究

本文在嘉陵江上游区滑坡泥石流预警网络的基础上,结合我国及嘉陵江上游区的具体情况和经济承受能力,提出了嘉陵江上游区滑坡泥石流预警信息系统的基本结构、内容、运行原理。此系统的建立对于当地的减灾、防灾和经济发展具有重要意义。     

Burned area forecasting using past burned area records and Southern Oscillation Index for tropical Africa (1981-1999)

An 18-year time series of monthly NOAA-AVHRR Pathfinder Land burned area was analyzed for the region of tropical Africa, from July 1981 to June 1999. The transition period between NOAA-11 and NOAA-14 platforms from July 1993 to June 1995 was not included due to missing and outlier data. Stability of the time series was addressed for the input variables in the burned area algorithm, reflectance and temperature channels.A Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average (SARIMA) model was developed for forecasting potential burned area. The SARIMA model identified an autoregressive regular term with 1-month lag and an autoregressive 12-month seasonal term with one season (12 months) component. A cross-correlation between Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and burned area was statistically significant predictor variable in a time series with 20-month lag. Results show that the SARIMA model with this predictor improved both, fitting and forecasting, residual variance, by 4.1% and 5.6%, respectively, thereby, demonstrating potential relationship between SOI and burned area for the study region. Forecasting was estimated by considering only the first 16 years of the monthly burned area in the time series, from July 1981 to June 1997. The prediction for the following 24 months (from July 1997 to June 1999) was within the 95% confidence level indicating that the forecast was a valid characterization of the modeled process.     

基于Delphi开发的POS系统的研究

零售业是生活中常见的行业，在零售业中引入了电子收款机系统（Point of Sells，POS）即进销存管理系统，是商店经营中的最热门的话题之一。这种进销存管理系统一般是现在比较常见的客户端／服务器模式也即C／S模式。文章介绍了采用INSPRISE公司的DELPHI7.0开发工具结合SQL SERVER2000数据库服务器。首先在短时间内建立系统应用原型，然后，对初始原型系统进行需求更迭，不断修正和改进，直到形成用户满意的可行系统。     

基于交互式逐步回归的双语教学态度预测模型

针对多元线性回归分析法预测双语教学态度误差较大的问题,通过引入变量的平方项及交叉乘积项建立拟线性回归方程,利用交互式逐步回归分析法对变量进行筛选,并以筛选后的变量建模。将调查数据分为建模样本数据和测试样本数据,测试结果表明经过变量扩维及筛选所建立的预测模型精确度有较大提高,为语言学研究提供了一种新方法,值得推扩和借鉴。     

Advancements in the design and validation of an air pollution integrated assessment model for Spain

This paper describes the design and application of the Atmospheric Evaluation and Research Integrated model for Spain (AERIS). Currently, AERIS can provide concentration profiles of NO₂, O₃, SO₂, NH₃, PM, as a response to emission variations of relevant sectors in Spain. Results are calculated using transfer matrices based on an air quality modelling system (AQMS) composed by the WRF (meteorology), SMOKE (emissions) and CMAQ (atmospheric-chemical processes) models. The AERIS outputs were statistically tested against the conventional AQMS and observations, revealing a good agreement in both cases. At the moment, integrated assessment in AERIS focuses only on the link between emissions and concentrations. The quantification of deposition, impacts (health, ecosystems) and costs will be introduced in the future. In conclusion, the main asset of AERIS is its accuracy in predicting air quality outcomes for different scenarios through a simple yet robust modelling framework, avoiding complex programming and long computing times.     

关于中国经济体制变迁的思考——从《许三观卖血记》透视经济体制改革

《许三观卖血记》是当代作家余华的一部长篇小说。在全国实行改革开放的前夜,以主人翁"许三观"为代表的中国贫苦农民在不断追求美好生活的过程中直面自己和国家的命运与前途,他们以中国农民特有的淳朴厚道不断改造和改变着自我,从他们生存状态的演化中,尤其从许三观被生活所迫而卖血这一事例中,透视了中国农村经济改革的发展轨迹和农村社会演化的历程。从我国解放初期与改革开放30年后的今天经济对比,从宏观经济环境与微观经济因素分析,主要分析了《许三观卖血记》中的经济现象,通过分析此现象的原因和与如今的经济状况对比得出中国经济体制改革的必要性和正确性。     

粒子群可拓的新冠肺炎建模与仿真

本文提出了一种基于粒子群可拓神经网络预测模型。根据国外近段时间每日新增新冠肺炎确诊人数,利用可拓神经网络模型对国外日新增新冠肺炎确诊人数进行预测,并利用粒子群算法(PSO)对权值进行优化,最后与LSSVM、ABC-LSSVM及PSO-LSSVM模型进行比较。结果表明:采用文中提出的粒子群可拓神经网络模型拟合效果较好,精度较高,性能优于其他三种模型,适用于COVID-19的疫情研究。